Italy G7 Summit 2024 – Analysis of the Communiqué

The Group of Seven (G7) Summit was held from June 13 to 15, 2024, in Apula, with Italy serving as the presidency. In the context of ongoing wars and conflicts such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s invasion of Gaza, leaders at the Summit adopted a Communiqué on issues that included Ukraine, Gaza, the Indo-Pacific, energy, climate, the environment, AI, disarmament and non-proliferation. The main points of the communiqué concerning climate change at the G7 Summit in 2024 are summarized below.

• Apulia G7 Leaders’ Communiqué (English) (No full Japanese translation) (Japanese summary)
• G7 Climate, Energy and Environment Ministers’ Meeting Communiqué (English) (Japanese – provisional translation)

Ⅰ.　Key points of the Communiqué

１．Reaffirming commitment to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, and committing to submit ambitious 1.5°C aligned Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)

The Communiqué reaffirms the commitment of G7 countries to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C and to submit ambitious 1.5°C aligned Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), as in the previous year, and this year the G7 countries restated their commitment to the Paris Agreement and keeping a limit of 1.5°C global temperature rise within reach, and pledged to submit ambitious 1.5°C aligned NDCs to the United Nations. Regarding the level of ambition, this year’s Communiqué repeats a commitment from last year’s Hiroshima Summit to provide a substantial contribution to efforts to reduce global GHG emissions by around 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 relative to the 2019 level. No G7 target to achieve the global target is indicated, although the text underlines that this is a collective effort and that further actions are needed from all countries, especially major economies.

２．Timing of phase out of existing coal-fired power plants during the first half of the 2030s

Regarding existing unabated coal power generation, at this summit, G7 countries committed themselves to phase it out of their energy systems “during the first half of 2030s,” or “in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries’ net-zero pathways.” This is the first G7 summit where “the first half of 2030s” is stated as the target period for the phase out. While the Communiqué states “the first half of 2030s” it also says “or in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach” and adds “in line with countries’ net-zero pathways.”

３．Welcoming COP28 commitments to triple renewables and double energy efficiency rate, and committing to achieving the global goal of deploying 1,500 GW of energy storage in power sector by 2030.

The G7 welcomed the COP28 commitments to “triple global renewable capacity and double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.” However, the G7 did not respond by setting any new targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements. On the other hand, to make renewable energy more stable, the G7 did add a new target by committing “to meet the global goal of deploying 1500 GW of energy storage in the power sector by 2030, including through existing targets and policies.”

４．No progress in transition away from fossil fuels such as oil and gas, or decarbonization of the power sector

Meanwhile, with regard to the decarbonization of the power sector, this summit went no further than reaffirming the 2022 G7 commitment to achieving a “fully or predominantly” decarbonized power sector by 2035. The leaders also committed to a collective effort towards a 75% reduction in global methane emissions from fossil fuels and restated that their commitment to eliminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies by 2025 or sooner. However, no mention is made of transitioning away from oil and gas, which would be essential for any transition away from fossil fuels. Conversely, maintaining a position similar to the Hiroshima Summit last year, the Communiqué states that “in the exceptional circumstance of accelerating the phase-out of our dependency on Russian energy, publicly supported investments in the gas sector can be appropriate as a temporary response.”

５．Emphasizing intent to be leading contributors for a new collective quantified goal on climate finance

A new goal for finance related to climate change is expected to be set at COP29 for 2025 and beyond. While G7 countries were unable to make any concrete commitments at this summit, they emphasized their intention to be leading contributors to the establishment of a new collective quantified goal (NCQG)

Ⅱ.　Significance of the Communiqué

• Negotiations under the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are now at the stage of looking ahead to 2030 and beyond, and the Parties are required to submit their next NDCs to the UN by February 2025. The NDC submitted by each country will set GHG emission reduction targets for 2035 and 2040, which will be crucial for the achievement of the 1.5°C goal. Thus it is important to note that at this year’s summit, G7 countries committed themselves to submit ambitious 1.5°C aligned NDCs.
• With regard to coal-fired power generation, which is a large GHG emitter compared to other methods of power generation, the G7 last year indicated to phase out coal-fired power generation, but no agreement was reached on timing, largely due to strong opposition from the Japanese government. At this summit, for the first time, the Communiqué indicates “the first half of the 2030s” as the deadline to phase out “existing unabated coal power generation.” While five of the G7 countries have already decided to phase out coal by 2030, this Communiqué could be described as some agreement on accelerating a coal phase-out between the United States (which has not specified a target date for phase out), and Japan (which is only working on a “fade out” to reduce some inefficient power plants but has not even begun discussing a phase out).
• Besides the above points, the Communiqué lacks any substance on transitioning away from fossil fuels. This Communiqué could be seen as a setback in terms of phasing out fossil fuels, considering the reuse of previous wording about the commitment to achieve a “fully or predominantly” decarbonized power sector by 2035, and the phrase that publicly supported investments “can be appropriate as a temporary response” in the gas sector.
• As with the Hiroshima Summit last year, the Communiqué mentions the promotion of hydrogen and ammonia in industrial sectors, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors. However, again this year, no overall agreement was reached on promoting hydrogen and ammonia use in the power sector, leaving Japan isolated on the path it is pursuing.

Ⅲ.　Japan’s Response to the G7

Complete phase-out of existing coal power generation during first half of 2030s

In the G7 Communiqué this year, the item with the most significant impact for Japan is the agreement on coal-fired power generation. This is because the agreed-upon “phase-out during the first half of the 2030s” is not consistent with Japan’s current policy stance. Japan has stated that any change in current policy will not be necessary, based on the government’s own interpretation, but it is difficult to find any rationality in the government’s interpretation, for the following reasons.

• Based on science-based scenarios, many developed countries have already committed to a phase-out in 2030, with targets that are consistent with the 1.5°C goal. The gap between the 1.5°C goal and the current situation is large, so the mention of “a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach” in this Communiqué means not a gradual phase-out, but rather, an earlier phase-out.
• No definition of “unabated” is stated in the Communiqué, but considering the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) definition of “unabated” as fossil fuels being produced and used without interventions that substantially reduce the amount of GHG emitted throughout the life cycle (for example, capturing 90% or more CO2 from power plants), it is difficult to imagine this meaning a 10 to 20% reduction in emissions through efficiency or ammonia co-firing. Thus, in practice, this can probably only be interpreted as meaning power plants equipped with carbon capture and storage technology (CCS).
• The phrase “in line with countries’ net-zero pathways” in the Communiqué does not preclude alignment with the 1.5°C goal.

In light of the above points, it would be appropriate to interpret this Communiqué literally as a commitment to phase out existing coal-fired power plants during the first half of the 2030s. Based on this Communiqué, one could say the Japanese government must start considering a domestic phase-out of coal power.

Ambitious NDCs and deployment of renewable energy and energy storage

There was no agreement at this summit on GHG emission reduction targets or new numerical target levels for the deployment of renewable energy, and G7 leaders didn’t attempt to show strong leadership. However, in light of the gap with the 1.5°C goal, there was a clear signal about setting ambitious NDCs, accelerating the deployment of renewable energy, and increasing energy storage, which would include batteries. Based on this Communiqué, Japan needs to develop an ambitious NDC, after undergoing a policy-making process in fiscal 2024.

Written by Kimiko Hirata, Atsuko Kawaguchi